AUD/USD's rebound from 1.0115 continued last week and reached as high as 1.0459. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for further rally. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 1.0624 might have completed at 1.0115 already. Rebound from there should extend to retest 1.0597/0624 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.0343 minor support is needed to signal short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend, in form of a triangle. There is not clear sign of breakout yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 0.9588. Meanwhile, break of 1.0624 will be an early sign of up trend resumption and should bring retest of 1.1079 high next.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.
Mar 23 13
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