EUR/AUD's fall from 1.3189 extended to as low as 1.2341 and breached 1.2355 support before recovering. Downside momentum is a bit unconvincing for the moment as seen in 4 hours MACD. But near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.2622 minor resistance holds. Sustained trading below 1.2355 support will have larger bearish implication and will pave the way to 1.2159 support and below. Meanwhile, rebound from current level and break of 1.2622 resistance will indicate that EUR/AUD has drawn support from 1.2355 and completed the fall from 1.3189 and will turn bias back to the upside.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is formed at 1.1602 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. As long as 1.2355 support holds, another rise is still expected in medium term to extend the corrective rebound from 1.1602, to 38.2% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.5241. Though, sustained break of 1.2355 will indicate that the rise from 1.1602 is finished and will bring retest of this low. Overall, price actions from 1.1602 are viewed as correction and could either extend sideway or higher. But there is no indication of long term trend reversal yet.
In the longer term picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1602. EUR/AUD should now enter into a correction phase with neutral to bullish medium term outlook. But long term outlook is still neutral to bearish as there is no evidence of reversal yet. We'll see how the structure of the rise from 1.1602 will develop into. And without much information for the moment, we'll treat it as a corrective rise.
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