Bearish trend, momentum: GBP/AUD has been in a bearish trend since the start of the year, which actually extending back to Oct. 2012 from a high of 1.5880. After a consolidation at the end of January, GBP/AUD picked up bearish momentum again in February through March so far. The 4H RSI reflects the bearish momentum as the reading tagged 30 several times and has held below 60 in the noted period.
Consolidation: This week GBP/AUD came off a new low on the year at 1.4378, forming what looks like a double bottom. Then this week, it remained in a range between roughly 1.4475 and 1.4627, still holding the double bottom in place. The momentum has gotten stuck as the RSI reading oscillates between 40 and 60. Price action and momentum are both showing consolidation.
Breakout: The break to the downside would be trend-following, first putting focus on the 1.4378 low, and then a bearish continuation if that breaks down. To the upside, if we take the Feb-March downswing, we can see 38.2% retracement at 1.4750, which would be near what a range breakout projection would target.
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