GBP/JPY stayed in range below 145.85 last week but there was no sustainable selling. Initial bias remains neutral this week with focus on 142.00 resistance. Break will indicate that rebound from 137.87 has completed at 145.85. In that case the consolidation pattern from 147.97 should have started the third leg for 38.2% retracement of 118.82 to 147.97 at 136.83 and below. Meanwhile, even in case of another rise, firm break of 147.97 is needed to confirm resumption of recent rally. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains as consolidation from 147.97 would continue.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 163.05 has completed at 116.83 already. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). But rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Thus, medium term rise is now expected back to 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 133.48 resistance turned support holds.
In the longer term picture, the rebound from 116.83 is still strong from medium term point of view. More importantly, note that GBP/JPY has breached 55 months EMA and monthly MACD turned positive. The chance for a sustainable medium term to long term up trend is raised. We'll continue to focus on the structure of the rise from 116.83 for more evidence.
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